Think We're In the Clear? Think Again.

 


After what we've all been through these past 15 months who can blame us if we think we've finally gotten the upper hand on the Covid-19 virus. We're starting to see the arrival of large supplies of vaccines. The focus is now shifting to second or booster shots. Summer isn't far away. The return of parks, beaches, and, for some, holidays. We crave a return to normal.

It may not be that simple.

Unlike most journalists, the Tyee's Andrew Nikiforuk has immersed himself in this pandemic business. He's written two books on the subject, The Fourth Horseman and Pandemonium. He warns this threat is far from over and we'll pay dearly if we assume we're somehow in the clear.


A journalist’s mission during a pandemic is to report the truth, no matter how complicated or uncomfortable it may become. Truth is always the casualty of extreme events. During the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918 governments lied like hell. And during COVID-19, they often lied like hell.

Here in Canada, in many provinces, bad governance made the pandemic much worse than it should have been. So the mission was basic: give people the best and most trustworthy information. My guide was simple: what does my own family need to know to pass through this trial?”

Vaccines can’t end the pandemic by themselves because of the variants and vaccine hesitancy. It took lockdowns and vaccines to bring England’s numbers down.

By abandoning public health measures that work at reducing aerosol spread, including stringent border controls — which Canada never adopted — we are setting ourselves up for trouble in the autumn.

As complexity experts like Yaneer Bar-Yam and Zeynep Tufekci have repeatedly argued and I’ve reported, pandemics have long tails. They are complex events that require rapid over-reactions to prevent exponential growth. Global travel compounds this complexity, and it’s revving up again.

If we can’t use vaccines and public measures to eliminate COVID now within Canada’s borders, then when? The pandemic will not end until every nation is free of this novel pathogen. Otherwise every infected country becomes a global factory for more and more transmissible variants.

We have seen what happens when politicians decide to treat themselves to a victory lap for having defeated Covid-19. Boris Johnson did it. Narendra Modi did it. And, when they did, the pandemic rebounded, claiming more lives, demanding more stringent lockdowns. 


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