Like an Avalanche, Unstoppable Change Can Start Off Slow

 


Is this your future? Probably not but it might be your grandkids' future. This graph depicts the likely consequences of global warming destroying the polar ice caps, the end of the cryosphere. 

Climate scientists are now looking into the likelihood of "cascades." Think of an avalanche. It begins with a small break, the starting zone. That first break sweeps more snow and more energy before it along what's known as the track. Eventually the avalanche reaches the runout zone.

The cascade in a climate sense involves tipping points and knock-on effects, not snowpack.  As the cryosphere disintegrates it releases cold fresh water into our oceans, potentially weakening the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or AMOC, popularly known as the Atlantic Conveyor. AMOC regulates temperatures in Europe and eastern North America.  Much colder winters and hotter summers in Europe. Warmer waters off North America fueling more severe hurricanes and other storm events. Sea level rise and the salinification of coastal fresh water resources. The possible end of the Amazon rainforest and damage to the boreal forests. One tipping point passed triggers another and so on.

Another dire warning from those folks at the Potsdam Institute.

“We provide a risk analysis, not a prediction, but our findings still raise concern,” said Prof Ricarda Winkelmann, at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany. “[Our findings] might mean we have less time to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and still prevent tipping processes.”

The level of CO2 in the atmosphere required to push temperatures beyond the thresholds could be reached in the very near future, she said. “In the next years or decades, we might be committing future generations to really severe consequences.” These could include many metres of sea-level rise from ice melting, affecting scores of coastal cities.

“We’re shifting the odds, and not in our favour – the risk clearly is increasing the more we heat our planet,” said Jonathan Donges, also at PIK and part of the research team.

What these papers almost always leave out is any analysis of our resilience, our fragility to these impacts. What are our limits? How much is too much? What are our best options for mitigation and adaptation? 

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