Devil Take the Hindmost

 

It's been a while so let's return to the subject of climate breakdown. There's news. No, it's mainly bad.

Remember when we first heard about "tipping points"? Back then the narrative was these were "do not exceed" limits beyond which we risked waking the sleeping giant, nature, triggering runaway climate change. We even crafted this political process that this year celebrates its 27th anniversary to do, basically, next to nothing.

The business about tipping points has lost most of its urgency even though it's there for all to see. We've become somewhat inured to the process, perilous as it may be.

A new report in the journal, Science, clarifies how near we are to five major tipping points that would drastically alter human life and that of most other species.

Here are excerpts of the summary from "Getting Tipsy" -

Climate tipping points (CTPs) are a source of growing scientific, policy, and public concern. They occur when change in large parts of the climate system—known as tipping elements—become self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold. Triggering CTPs leads to significant, policy-relevant impacts, including substantial sea level rise from collapsing ice sheets, dieback of biodiverse biomes such as the Amazon rainforest or warm-water corals, and carbon release from thawing permafrost. Nine policy-relevant tipping elements and their CTPs were originally identified by Lenton et al. (2008).

...We identify nine global “core” tipping elements which contribute substantially to Earth system functioning and seven regional “impact” tipping elements which contribute substantially to human welfare or have great value as unique features of the Earth system (see figure). Their estimated CTP thresholds have significant implications for climate policy: Current global warming of ~1.1°C above pre-industrial already lies within the lower end of five CTP uncertainty ranges. Six CTPs become likely (with a further four possible) within the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to <2°C warming, including collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, die-off of low-latitude coral reefs, and widespread abrupt permafrost thaw.

Our assessment provides strong scientific evidence for urgent action to mitigate climate change. We show that even the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C and preferably 1.5°C is not safe as 1.5°C and above risks crossing multiple tipping points. Crossing these CTPs can generate positive feedbacks that increase the likelihood of crossing other CTPs. Currently the world is heading toward ~2 to 3°C of global warming; at best, if all net-zero pledges and nationally determined contributions are implemented it could reach just below 2°C. This would lower tipping point risks somewhat but would still be dangerous as it could trigger multiple climate tipping points.

...Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth system impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global “core” tipping elements and regional “impact” tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to <2°C global warming, with many more likely at the 2 to 3°C of warming expected on current policy trajectories.

We have seen climate catastrophe unfold this year, especially in Pakistan.  A summer of record heatwaves was followed by hyper-monsoons that left a third of the nation flooded, nearly half of its topsoil washed away and millions of its people left homeless.

Turmoil in South Asia is nothing new. Three nuclear powers vie for access to Himalayan headwaters. Climate change is a powerful destabilizing force. 

The outlook is also dire for the Eastern Mediterranean/Middle East region (EMME). It's estimated the area could see 5 degrees C. of heating, perhaps more.

A new report prepared by an international group of scientists and published in the authorative journal “Reviews of Geophysics”, identifies the EMME* as a climate change hot spot, and concludes that the region is warming almost two times faster than the global average, and more rapidly than other inhabited parts of the world. For the remainder of the century, projections based on a business-as-usual pathway indicate an overall warming of up to 5°C or more, being strongest in the summer, and associated with unprecedented heatwaves that can be societally disruptive. Further, the region will experience rainfall shortages that compromise water and food security. Virtually all socio-economic sectors are expected to be critically affected, with potentially devastating impacts on the health and livelihoods of the 400 million people of the EMME, with worldwide implications.

That's two geopolitical hotspots in the throes of climate catastrophe.  Closer to home we have the American southwest where areas like California are experiencing the worst drought in 1,200 years with no end in sight.  Among the hard hit states is Utah where water gluttony is a way of life.

Utah already has the highest per-capita water usage in the country. In Washington county – home to Zion and St George – usage was an alarming 285 gallons a person a day in 2020, more than double what those in Las Vegas, just hours to the south, use.

To put this in perspective, the UN World Health Organization says that people need a minimum of 20 litres of clean water a day for basic hydration, food preparation and sanitation. That's 5.28 gallons per person per day. If you live in a desert that's getting hotter and drier and you have a lifestyle that requires 285 gallons of freshwater per day - well, you have a problem.

Utah could be in for a bit of unwelcome drought relief tomorrow in the form of flash flooding.

The Canadian prairie has also experienced megadrought. 20 years ago the Globe & Mail published a story on western drought records.

Peter Leavitt, a biologist with the University of Regina, said that over the past 2,000 years, droughts have lasted for 45 years in Alberta, 70 years in Saskatchewan and 20 years in Manitoba.

One Alberta megadrought unearthed by Prof. Leavitt and his group occurred from 1690 to 1730.

While the most recent Prairies drought was estimated to have cost farmers $5-billion, simulations show that a megadrought price tag could hit $450-billion.

Bear in mind that report is from 2002, twenty years ago, back when climate change skepticism was very much alive in Canada's media.   A lot has changed over the past two decades, very little of it for the better. Today scientists look at worsening drought less as an economic problem and much more as a threat to food security.