Gwynne Dyer's Money Is On Ukraine

 

It's been a challenge to make much sense out of Putin's illegal war on Ukraine. 

After stunning successes by the Ukrainians against the invading Russian forces, Putin pulled back, appointed a new commander, and went after the eastern part of Ukraine. This time the Russkies appear to have the upper hand. 

The way Gwynne Dyer sees it, Russia won't succeed but the danger lies in what happens after Putin's forces are defeated.

Two months ago, when Russian tanks first rolled into Ukraine, every message from Washington or NATO about the invasion included a prominent passage saying what the western alliance wouldn’t do.

It would not send NATO troops to help Ukraine. It would give Ukraine “defensive” weapons, not “offensive” ones, e.g., anti-tank missiles, not tanks. It would, in other words, let Ukraine lose, but only slowly. And under no circumstances would it cause Russia to fear it might face NATO military action.

How things have changed! In the last two weeks the U.S. has said some $2 billion in state-of-the-art weapons are en route to Ukraine, including Switchblade combat drones and self-propelled howitzers. Even Germany (which originally offered Ukraine 5,000 helmets) is sending modern anti-aircraft guns.

...the first-round win went to Ukraine almost by default, but the second round starting now will be more difficult. The Russians are now mostly concentrated on one front in eastern Ukraine, allowing their traditional, methodical tactics, reliant on bigger numbers and superior firepower, to function as designed.

There is still a lot of political interference driven by Putin’s impatience – troops withdrawn from the abandoned Kyiv front are being thrown back into combat in the east with no time to rest or regroup – but they are slowly gaining ground.

They will continue to advance for weeks to come. More and better weapons are on their way to the Ukrainians, but it will take time to crew them and get them to the front. It’s unlikely, but Ukraine still could lose this war.

The Dangerous Aftermath - The Question of Crimea

If the Ukrainians start retaking territory, where do they stop? On the line where the war began, leaving Crimea and some of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces in Russia’s hands? That would make sense, but it would be hard to convince bitter, vengeful Ukrainians to stop short of their pre-2014 border.

It also would be hard to get the Washington crew to stop there at the moment, but they need to be persuaded – or face a new Cold War with Russia that could last beyond this decade.

Far better to stop at the 2022 border, declare a unilateral ceasefire, and let Putin twist in the wind. Russia would get rid of him eventually, and you could end sanctions in return for reparations for Ukraine.

To get there, Ukraine first must win the war, which is not yet in the bag. Then friends would have to convince them stopping short of total victory is in their own long-term interest. Not an easy sell.

A More Ominous View from the CIA

CIA director, William Burns, warns that Putin may have painted himself in a corner. Burns expects Putin to double down, doing whatever it takes to destroy Ukraine. 

He warned that Putin is in a "frame of mind in which he doesn't believe he can afford to lose" - even as Ukraine's military, with accelerated support from the West, continues to demonstrate an effective resistance.

"I think he's convinced right now that doubling down still will enable him to make progress," Burns said of Putin, adding much — including the overall scope of the war and whether Moscow's territorial ambitions remain limited to the southeast or expand to again include Odesa, Kyiv and other areas — would depend on whether Russian forces could demonstrate momentum in the coming weeks.

"It was a profound mistake — it was Putin's biggest mistake — in planning for this invasion and then in launching it, to underestimate the Ukrainians," Burns said.

If Vlad believes his own hold on power is at stake if Russia doesn't prevail over Ukraine Putin's dirty little war could turn far more brutal. Ukraine has become Putin's very own Sword of Damocles.

Comment Reaction:

NPoV, there are still plenty of "Putin appeasers" especially in the white trash division of the GOP.

TB, Dyer was in good company in his early predictions. A good many experts thought Russia and Belarus forces on exercise on Ukraine's borders were an intimidation effort.