Falling Behind Faster and Faster - IPCC
The latest chapter in the IPCC's third major report says that we have a very narrow chance of averting 1.5 degree warming. But, if we make the big sacrifices and are really diligent about it, we might get back within that threshold in 80 years.
Make no mistake, 1.5C of warming will be no bed of roses. Nature will also have its say in that and this year's simultaneous heatwaves in the Arctic and Antarctic took even the science types by surprise. Nature is not done with us yet.
A hotter planet begets an even hotter planet and that will be the legacy of our refusal to stop producing fossil fuels, especially coal and bitumen. More extreme heat, more flooding, more drought, more wildfires, more famine, more war, more sea level rise, more failed infrastructure. That's akin to a two pack a day smoker with lung cancer going to three packs a day. That would be stupid, wouldn't it?
Grist adds this perspective:
Although emissions are rising more slowly than they have in previous years, humanity has lost precious time to drive down climate pollution, and even with the most ambitious policies, there is now only a 38 percent chance that the world will stave off a 1.5-degree C rise in temperature. This is a significant decrease from 2018, when the panel predicted a 55 percent chance of staying below that threshold.
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