The Dreaded "E" Word or Good Intentions On the Road to Hell

 

Canada must stop producing fossil fuels by 2034. 12 more years if mankind is to have a break-even chance of arresting global warming at 1.5C.

A study out of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change, University of Manchester, contends that rich countries must slash fossil energy production by 70 % by 2030 and entirely just four years later. Poor countries that may be heavily or almost totally dependent on fossil fuel revenues should be given until 2050 to end production.

The report examines each country’s wealth and how dependent its economy is on fossil fuel production. It found that many poorer countries would be crippled economically and politically by a rapid move away from oil and gas, while wealthier nations could afford to end fossil fuel production while remaining relatively prosperous.

The author, prof. Kevin Anderson, isn't optimistic.

Anderson warned many wealthier nations still only paid “lip service” to the idea. “I don’t see any sense of equity being taken seriously by the policymakers in the wealthy parts of the world,” he said.

"Equity", the dreaded "E" word. It is to the leaders of the rich countries as the noonday sun is to a vampire. There'll be no talk of equity or climate justice when the G20 leaders gather. No Thank You.  Merely discussing such ideas would be an admission of guilt.

Canada, at 5.1 million barrels a day ranks fourth in oil production, much of it diluted bitumen. We outproduce Iraq, the UAE, Iran, Kuwait, Norway, Qatar, Nigeria and Brazil. The US leads the pack with 16 million barrels a day. 

The obvious conclusion is that Justin Trudeau, with his inane Trans Mountain Pipeline diving deeper in the red every day, has no intention of stopping oil and bitumen production. None, zero.

Professor Anderson's solution sounds radical, almost crazy. It's not. It's not even novel. Back in 2015 when a freshly minted Canadian prime minister took to the floor of the Paris climate summit to declare 'Canada's back' there emerged a consensus that climate heating had to be kept below 1.5C if humanity was to have a chance of surviving. 

Also in attendance at the Paris meet was Hans Joachim (Johnny) Schellnhuber, head of the prestigious Potsdam Climate Centre. A reporter asked him if achieving the 1.5C target was possible. He said yes but it would require an "induced implosion" of the fossil fuel industry by the governments of the major producers. In essence, Schellenhuber was saying in 2015 much the same as what Anderson calls for today.

We need to accept that Canada's fossil energy policy is contributing to a desperate future for our young people. Around the world people will die in huge numbers. That's on us.