Will the Arctic Become the Frontline for Cold War II?


 

It looks like we're heading for another Cold War showdown between the Russian bear and the NATO nations. This time the Arctic may be Russia's front line.

The Arctic is the one region where Russia has unrivaled dominance over both the US and China.  In recent years the Russian military has been re-activating military installations that were mothballed since the collapse of the Soviet Union.  NATO, Canada and the US did not respond in kind.

Russia's ability to influence Europe is iffy. The Black Sea fleet can enter the Mediterranean only so long as Turkey permits its warships to transit the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits.  In the Baltic, Russia's vital sea port, St. Petersburg, which sits at the end of the Gulf of Finland, is also vulnerable. This has led  Putin to threaten both Finland and Sweden with "military repercussions" should they seek shelter within the NATO alliance. 

Even Russia's access to the Atlantic from its Barents Sea ports has to pass through a gauntlet from the Norwegian mainland and its Svalbard archipelago, Greenland and Iceland. Those waters are famous for the Bismark's attempt to clear the Denmark Strait and break out into the North Atlantic.  Still, what was the best option for the Kriegsmarine in 1941 is of vital importance to the Russian navy in the 21st century.

Some think that Putin's invasion of Ukraine is motivated by domestic challenges. He needs to flex his muscles to fend off rivals. If that is true, being contained by NATO from the Arctic to the Baltic, the North Atlantic, Mediterranean to the Black Sea, could be his undoing. Stranger things have happened.


Comments

  1. Northern PoVFebruary 26, 2022 at 9:56 AM

    imo, the demos in Russia are encouraging - if they last and grow.

    oth, with Putin's big mistake, one of the goals of the NATO expansion, (ie the end of a neutral Ukraine), is in the process of being achieved.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Disaffected LibFebruary 26, 2022 at 12:15 PM

      There are many ways this could go, NPoV. No one imagined Germany could go to war with Russia in 1914. The two economies were joined at the hip, each being the other's major trading partner. The Czar and the Kaiser (along with George V of Britain) were cousins, grandsons of Victoria. None of them wanted war, they stumbled into it.

      Unless Putin is removed by his rivals, it's hard to see how we avoid Cold War II on a scale those under 40 never knew.

      Delete
  2. TrailblazerFebruary 26, 2022 at 3:12 PM

    If China becomes aggressive to Taiwan then we are in deep shit.
    Add to that the possibility of compliant Republican government in the US who are Putin friendly.
    In the end it is capitalism destroying itself as it fights for the spoils and not the high ground.
    Best bet for all is that Putin goes totally senile and makes more mistakes.
    When the body bags start arriving in Moscow from the Ukraine visions of Afghanistan
    will be revived.

    TB

    ReplyDelete
  3. TrailblazerFebruary 26, 2022 at 5:09 PM

    As for Arctic sovereignty , that will not be protected by the illusionary capabilities of the F35 strike fighter.
    Canada first requires a capable naval fleet and long range aircraft for surveillance and others to fight an aggressor.
    Surveillance can be done by drones and, sadly, the reasonable aircraft to purchase, the latest F18 Super Hornet with it's twin engine has been deleted from the options because of hissey fit reactions between competing aircraft companies that put profit before the security of nations.

    TB

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Disaffected LibFebruary 28, 2022 at 8:28 AM

      Defending Canadian airspace with the limited force we can field is almost impossible. In terms of aircraft, range, payload and speed are vital. The new Saudi version of the F-15 might give us some ability to extend our air defence across more of the vast north.

      Delete
  4. Northern PoVFebruary 27, 2022 at 6:34 AM

    Only certain Russian banks affected by the SWIFT restrictions. Not the ones used for the oil/gas transactions. Both sides are avoiding mutual calamities atm. And if/when the Brits shut down the Russian oligarchs* London playground, these are signals that the west is serious.

    Just like Apple (Foxconn) supply chains went unaffected by all the tRump trade bluster.

    *btw When will we start calling the Bezos, Musks, Buffets and Gates 'oligarchs'?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Northern PoVFebruary 27, 2022 at 7:09 AM

    Breaking .... (I've always wanted to use that!)

    Ukraine and Russia agree to talks without preconditions, Zelenskiy says.

    SO ....

    What is Putin's endgame? Is this invasion (1) offensive or (2) defensive?

    1) Putin can likely achieve a short term victory but it comes with the need for a permanent military occupation and a likely endless guerilla war. And it comes with a semi-permanent pariah status for Russia internationally/economically.
    This is the scenario/motivation being peddled by our political and media leaders.

    2) If Putin's goal is for a permanently neutral Ukraine with a defanged NATO in the former Soviet Bloc, this is achievable.



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Disaffected LibFebruary 28, 2022 at 8:32 AM

      This is not Putin's first rodeo. Consider Chechnya. That was more or less a win. In Belarus Putin helped suppress a democracy movement, earning Moscow an invaluable ally that might soon send its own troops into Ukraine.

      Don't forget 2008 when Russia mixed it up with Georgia and walked away with South Ossetia and Abkhazia as consolation prizes.

      Delete
  6. TrailblazerFebruary 27, 2022 at 5:35 PM

    What is Putin's endgame?

    Having misread the situation prior to the invasion , I can only guess.

    Russian has, at as some have said, suffered substantial losses due to Putin's miscalculation of the defiance of the Ukrainians.
    I do not believe that the Russian army is on board with Putin on this one and possibly their moral is not the best.
    On the other hand the Ukrainians would seem to be in total defiance of the invasion.
    Putin is now faced with win at all cost and decimate Ky iv , which is surrounded, and face an endless guerrilla war of occupation.
    Given that Russia's Oligarchs are becoming uneasy about their future prospects and influence in the world at large ; Putin should worry about a palace coup.
    It could become really nasty, but I think Putin has over reached his ambitions.
    At the end of the game the Ukrainians will never again trust the USA or NATO.
    They will realise that they have been nothing more than a pawn of American expansionism.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3_0GqPvr4U

    TB


    ReplyDelete

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