Omicron, a Blessing in Disguise?

 

To me it sounds counterintuitive but, hey, if it's true it's welcome.

There's a lot of talk about the Omicron variant of Covid-19 effecting a transition from pandemic into an endemic virus. It's on the front page of both the New York Times and National Post. So, what's the difference?

The Columbia University web site lists the distinctions between epidemic, pandemic and endemic.

The WHO defines pandemics, epidemics, and endemics based on a disease's rate of spread. Thus, the difference between an epidemic and a pandemic isn't in the severity of the disease, but the degree to which it has spread.

A pandemic cuts across international boundaries, as opposed to regional epidemics. This wide geographical reach is what makes pandemics lead to large-scale social disruption, economic loss, and general hardship.

It's important to note that a once-declared epidemic can progress into pandemic status. While an epidemic is large, it is also generally contained or expected in its spread, while a pandemic is international and out of control. 

What, then, is "endemic"?

An endemic is a disease outbreak that is consistently present but limited to a particular region. This makes the disease spread and rates predictable.

Malaria, for example, is considered an endemic in certain countries and regions.

The free-enterprise, American Institute for Economic Research, offers this:

A disease is considered endemic when it is regularly found among particular populations or in a certain geographic area, and is “constantly maintained at a baseline level […] without external inputs.” Endemicity means predictable and manageable.

Polio was endemic. Chickenpox is endemic worldwide. HIV is endemic in the US. Ebola is endemic to the DRC, while Malaria remains endemic across various parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America.

Covid-19 will be the fifth human coronavirus to eventually reach an endemic state. The other four coronaviruses — such as those that cause colds — offer short-term immunity lasting about a year. However, a recently released study indicates Covid-19 immunities last at least 8 months, or for years.

There may be something to this.  The company that produces the Moderna vaccine plans to produce a combined Covid/influenza booster within the next two years.

Is this wishful thinking? We've certainly seen plenty of that over the past two years as premiers have proclaimed the "all clear" only to return to lockdown, again and again.

The head of the World Health Organization is warning that it's too soon to proclaim the "acute phase" of Covid-19 is ending.

"There are different scenarios for how the pandemic could play out and how the acute phase could end. But it's dangerous to assume that omicron will be the last variant or that we are in the endgame," Tedros told a WHO executive board meeting.

"On the contrary, globally, the conditions are ideal for more variants to emerge.''

However, Tedros insisted: "We can end COVID-19 as a global health emergency, and we can do it this year."

He said this could best be done by trying to reach goals like the WHO's target to vaccinate 70% of the population of each country by the middle of 2020.