Trudeau's Lousy Bet.

 


A report published in the journal Nature Energy predicts that Athabasca bitumen's days are numbered.

By 2036 half the world's fossil energy reserves could become "stranded." The bursting "carbon bubble" could trigger a global recession to equal the 2008 Great Recession.

The most vulnerable assets are those in remote regions or technically challenging environments. Most exposed are Canadian tar sands, US shale and the Russian Arctic followed by deep offshore wells in Brazil and elsewhere. North Sea oil is also relatively expensive to extract and likely to be hit when demand falls.

Major pipelines, such as our prime minister's folly, the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline, take about 60 years to recover the initial investment.  If the prediction is accurate, we'll wind up eating most of the TMX tab. Makes you wonder what the private sector was getting at when they wouldn't touch this pipeline project.

Every cloud has a silver lining and Canada's loss will be the major energy importers' gain.

By contrast, current oil, gas and coal importers such as the EU, Japan, India and South Korea, will reap hefty economic dividends from the transition because they will be able to use the money they save on overseas fuel purchases to invest in their own countries, including money for renewables that will modernise infrastructure, create jobs and improve energy independence.

So, Canada will plunge into recession, Alberta might be able to eke out some future raising cattle if we're still eating meat by then, and those toxic tailing ponds will just have to clean themselves up because those energy giants will be in the tank.

If you think I'm picking on Trudeau, look, we were warned. Mark Carney said again and again that bitumen is a bad bet, it is destined to become a stranded asset, worthless. The prime minister and his advisers were warned so I have to assume they had their own reasons for resurrecting a pipeline project the private sector wouldn't touch.

Comments

  1. TrailblazerNovember 5, 2021 at 5:14 PM

    The bursting "carbon bubble" could trigger a global recession to equal the 2008 Great Recession.

    We survived that one with little apparent effect.
    We did so by offloading our debt , and it's consequences, upon our offspring and theirs and so on and so on!
    The consequences are climate change and the degradation of the planet.

    What a selfish world we have created.

    TB

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Disaffected LibNovember 5, 2021 at 6:18 PM

      Our parents and grandparents invested in this country and sought to leave it a better place. We took all that they had given, took all that we could and then robbed the future. We took it all because we could, never considering whether we should and we're still doing it.

      Ours is a society that has elevated selfishness to the status of a religion.

      Delete
  2. TrailblazerNovember 5, 2021 at 8:33 PM

    The 'market' will be the decider of our carbon follies, not those effected.
    The issue as I see it , is how do we convince the masses to be more responsible?

    TB

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Disaffected LibNovember 6, 2021 at 12:08 AM

      "The masses" is an awkward term, TB. It suggests an inclusivity, some commonality. Many people adopt a cohesiveness in times of emergency as they share burdens such as a war economy, national service or rationing. It is unclear to me that we're even capable of replicating that today. We seem to be in a time of division, a breakdown of social cohesion. The deeper our fractures the more difficult it can be to convince a populace to do anything.

      Delete

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