Canada's "Winter of Political Discontent."

 


Even though the Trudeau Liberals eked out a win in the last general election, it was pretty thin gruel.  Pollster Nik Nanos writes that, if anything, it was a vote of no confidence from the voting public.


One would think that a minority federal Liberal government that oversaw such a pandemic response would be rewarded with a majority mandate. Instead: No majority government, no political honeymoon, Canadians sent the Liberals back to the political drawing board.

Research completed right after the federal election suggests that if the pandemic was an opportunity to showcase the role of government as a force for good, the positive feelings expressed by Canadians regarding the early response did not last. We are now entering a “winter of political discontent.”

Nanos has run the numbers on several issues and finds, across the board, support for (confidence in) the Liberals has slumped.

At the height of the pandemic about six in 10 Canadians were confident (15 per cent) or somewhat confident (45 per cent) in keeping the health care system strong. Fast forward to the period right after the election and the overall confidence has declined a full 10 percentage points.

When it comes to protecting our environment, confidence levels are at their lowest since Stephen Harper was prime minister. The key takeaway is that Liberal ambitions on climate change have not buoyed the hopes of Canadians. Or rather, that they do not believe that the government can move the dial.

Canadians imagined the Liberals majority win in 2015 might redeem Canada's tattered reputation on the international stage.

Views on foreign affairs today are not much better than those on other policy issues. Regardless of the efforts of the Liberals, confidence in Canada’s role in international affairs has hit a low never seen since the tracking started in 2012.

Currently, more than four in 10 Canadians (43 per cent) have some sort of confidence in our role internationally – down from a high of 61 per cent in the first year of Mr. Trudeau’s Liberal government. There was hope that the election of Mr. Trudeau would be a renewal of Canada’s reputation around the world but, six years later, this number is even lower than his predecessor Mr. Harper.

On election night Canadians heard from Justin Trudeau that in his view the election outcome was “a clear mandate.” Is this a mandate to continue the same Liberal course unchanged since 2015 or is it a mandate to adjust and adapt? The numbers suggest that if average voters were asked, it was a mandate for the Liberals to recalibrate.

Canada isn't alone. We're not the only country where the public are falling out of love with their leaders. The malaise that has undermined confidence in Justin Trudeau is very much alive in the United States and the UK.

As Andrew Bacevich wrote about Joe Biden, the Last Progressive, "Time is short and global disaster looming. Yet arriving at a clearer understanding of what true freedom should entail will require more than simmering. To repurpose a phrase from an earlier era, “burn, baby, burn” may be the order of the day."

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