They're Banging That War Drum Again

 

To hear them tell it, China is picking a fight with Taiwan, sending an armada of bombers and fighters into Taiwanese air space. By "them" I mean the hawks in the US war department and their British and Australian pals. They have fed an all too eager media a rich diet of alarm backed up by photos of Chinese warplanes arrogantly intruding into Taiwanese airspace.  The narrative is that China is preparing to attack and invade Taiwan to make it part of the People's Republic.

Fred Kaplan explains that it's all a load of bollocks.

From the headlines of several news agencies, you’d think China was on the verge of war with Taiwan. U.S. News: “Brazen China Steadily Ramps Up Warplane Flights in Taiwan’s Airspace.” Yahoo News: “China Flies 52 Military Planes Into Taiwanese Airspace in Largest Incursion Ever.” NPR (during a similar spate of flights this summer): “China Sends a Record 28 Military Planes Into Airspace Controlled by Taiwan.”

If China really had done this, it would constitute a gross violation of international law and, possibly, the fanning of war flames.

But in fact, all of the reports are false.

What the Chinese planes crossed was Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, or ADIZ, and the distinction is not a mere technicality; it is enormous, and all the parties—U.S., Chinese, and Taiwanese military officials—know it, whatever scare tactics they might be tossing up to a frazzled public.

“Airspace” is a concept of international law, referring to a line 12 nautical miles (about 13.8 statutory miles) beyond a nation’s border. An ADIZ is an area—usually much farther out from the borders—within which a nation declares it has the authority to identify, track, and control foreign aircraft approaching its territory. Roughly 20 nations have established an ADIZ, and they define its scope differently. The U.S. zone extends 200 miles beyond its borders. Taiwan’s covers all of the Taiwan Strait, part of the East China Sea, and a section of mainland China’s Fujian and Zhejiang provinces. No one would claim that the sky above those provinces is “Taiwanese airspace.”

John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org, a private research firm, said in an email on Tuesday, “It is worth mentioning that the [Chinese air force] maneuvers are not simply random bullying.” He pointed to an article in Monday’s issue of Stars and Stripes, the U.S. military’s independent newspaper, that reported:

Three aircraft carriers—two American and one British—were among an armada of 17 warships from six countries that trained together over the weekend in the Philippine Sea. … The training, which included air defense, anti-submarine warfare, tactical maneuvers and communication drills, continued through Sunday.

The armada was “training” for a possible war in the Pacific against China. So the Chinese maneuvers might have been a response to the vast concentration of American and allied military powers. And possibly to U.S. President Joe Biden’s recent announcement to share nuclear submarine technology with Australia.