Wheels Spinning Within Wheels

 “When this religious militancy, the seed of which has been sowed by Pakistan, heads towards Pakistan, it will be catastrophic.”

Since the Taliban overran Afghanistan there's been no end of trash talk and finger-pointing, much of it directed at Joe Biden. One genius is even claiming that, if Washington had just held out one more month, the Afghanis would have had a negotiated deal for a peaceful future.  One month, twelve months, another decade - it really wouldn't have mattered much. That's because Afghanistan is just one of several wheels now in motion. 

That little nest of nuclear vipers next door, Pakistan, will feel the aftershocks of Afghanistan's seismic events. The uncertainty of what lies ahead has prominent Pakistanis deeply divided about Taliban rule in Kabul.

For many, Tuesday’s message was an ominous sign of what the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan could mean for Pakistan. While politicians, clerics, military officers and even the prime minister, Imran Khan, were among those in Pakistan celebrating the establishment of Taliban rule – Khan describing it as Afghanistan breaking “the shackles of slavery” – there are deep concerns that it will embolden powerful Islamic militant organisations operating in Pakistan.

These militant groups are fighting for Pakistan to adopt a similar model of strict and repressive Islamic governance seen under Taliban rule in Afghanistan between 1996 and 2001, and which many believe will once again be imposed.

...Many blame Pakistan for the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan, with whom it has historically always been friendly. Pakistan helped bring about and supported the first Taliban regime in 1996, and after the US invasion in 2001 Taliban leaders were given sanctuary in Pakistan, where they lived and regrouped for two decades.

Pakistan has been accused of turning a blind eye to the Taliban training camps in the remote and rugged border regions. Madrassas – Islamic religious schools – across Pakistan have been found to be key recruiters of jihadist militants, sending young men to fight for the Taliban in Afghanistan.

...Among those in Pakistan who expressed support for the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan was Asad Durrani, a former chief of the powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy agency. “The masses will be happy the Taliban took over Afghanistan,” Durrani told the Guardian. “Concerns are mostly among the privileged classes who will be deprived of their loot, and their clout to exploit the poor.”

Durrani, who was instrumental in the creation and rise of Taliban in the 1990s when he led ISI, praised their Islamic model of governance. “The problem is that the Taliban do not intend to influence politics or ideology in Pakistan,” he added. “But it’s entirely up to us if we want to adopt their victorious model.”

Ahmed Rashid said the Pakistani security establishment was misguided to believe that the Afghan Taliban would not continue to shelter and support the TTP and other militant groups that threaten Pakistan, including al-Qaida, as they had already been doing. TTP fighters are already said to have crossed over to Afghanistan to help the Taliban take back Afghanistan.

“There is no way the Taliban will give up TTP fighters and send them back to the prisons of Pakistan,” he added. “Pakistan was an ally to the Afghan Taliban, giving them shelter but they did not return the favour by stopping TTP from attacking Pakistani civilians and soldiers. This contradiction is going to get worse … In my opinion, we will now see an escalation in TTP’s war against Pakistan.”

As for the United States, its strained relationship with Pakistan has endured the past 20 years largely due to one concern, Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.  A Taliban-ish takeover of Pakistan could leave those warheads and delivery systems in very worrisome hands. Pakistan's military has been hiding the locations of its arsenal from its American "allies."

Pakistan would be an obvious place for a jihadist organization to seek a nuclear weapon or fissile material: It is the only Muslim-majority state, out of the 50 or so in the world, to have successfully developed nuclear weapons. Its central government has serious trouble controlling the many corners of its territory. Its security services are infiltrated by an unknown number of jihadist sympathizers; a number of jihadist organizations are headquartered there and have relations with the government. And the weapons are stored on bases and in facilities spread across the country -- possibly including one within several miles of Abbottabad, a city that, in addition to having hosted bin Laden, is home to many partisans of the jihadist group Harakat-ul-Mujahideen.

This danger must have been in former joint chiefs chairman, admiral Mike Mullens' mind, when  he recently told Fareed Zakaria that it would be best if the US abandoned Afghanistan and Pakistan to the Chinese and Russians.  That's their backyard and they would have as great a stake as the US in seeing that Pakistan's nukes stayed out of the wrong hands.

And China has hit the ground running.   China has, for years, worked to stitch up access to Afghanistan resources, especially copper.  It's also looking for another route, a land route, to connect with the Middle East.

China is already on the receiving end of suicide bombings from Baloch insurgents in the south where China has been given a 40-year lease on the Baloch port of Gwadar, much to the ire of the locals.  The resource rich Baloch territory has long been eyed jealously by Pakistan's ruling Sindh population.

“Of all the things in the world to worry about, the issue you should worry about the least is the safety of our nuclear program,” an ISI official said. “It is completely secure.” He went on to say, “It is in our interest to keep our bases safe as well. You must trust us that we have maximum and impenetrable security. No one with ill intent can get near our strategic assets.”

Like many statements made by Pakistan’s leaders, this one contained large elements of deceit. Militants have already targeted at least six facilities widely believed to be associated with Pakistan’s nuclear program. To hide weapons from the prying satellite eyes of the United States, Pakistan moves warheads around in unmarked vans with low security profiles down busy roads. In fact, Pakistanis see jihadists as less threatening than Washington, which they believe wants to seize their nuclear weapons. After the Abbottabad mission, Kayani wanted to know what additional steps Kidwai was taking to prevent an American raid on their nuclear arsenal. Kidwai promised to redouble efforts to keep his country’s weapons far from the long arms of the Americans.

It's near the limit of its range but Pakistan's Shaheen-III ballistic missile can reach Israel, 3,200 kms. distant. Pakistan is believed to have more than 120 warheads with enough fissile material to build another 200 nukes.  In short, Pakistan has a generous range of nuclear-tipped missile options, plenty enough to light up the region from Israel to India and beyond.