Ah, Jeebus. Not the Atlantic Conveyor!


What next? Is the Gulf Stream, that does so much to regulate the weather in Europe and North America, on the verge of collapse?

The research found “an almost complete loss of stability over the last century” of the currents that researchers call the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The currents are already at their slowest point in at least 1,600 years, but the new analysis shows they may be nearing a shutdown.

Such an event would have catastrophic consequences around the world, severely disrupting the rains that billions of people depend on for food in India, South America and West Africa; increasing storms and lowering temperatures in Europe; and pushing up the sea level in the eastern US. It would also further endanger the Amazon rainforest and Antarctic ice sheets. 
...It could be within a decade or two, or several centuries away. But the colossal impact it would have means it must never be allowed to happen, the scientists said.

“The signs of destabilisation being visible already is something that I wouldn’t have expected and that I find scary,” said Niklas Boers, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, who did the research. “It’s something you just can’t [allow to] happen.”

Scientists are increasingly concerned about tipping points – large, fast and irreversible changes to the climate. Boers and his colleagues reported in May that a significant part of the Greenland ice sheet is on the brink, threatening a big rise in global sea level. Others have shown recently that the Amazon rainforest is now emitting more CO2 than it absorbs, and that the 2020 Siberian heatwave led to worrying releases of methane.

The world may already have crossed a series of tipping points, according to a 2019 analysis, resulting in “an existential threat to civilisation”. A major report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, due on Monday, is expected to set out the worsening state of the climate crisis.

The good news is that we don't know how close a collapse of the Atlantic Conveyor may be. The bad news is that we don't know how close a collapse of the Atlantic Conveyor may be.


  1. I read this earlier today with real dismay, Mound. All the chickens are coming home to roost.

  2. What most worries me, Lorne, is the pace of these milestones in the climate breakdown. Again and again predictions criticized as dire fearmongering turn out to have been optimistic. I suspect that results from the lack of a comprehensive overview of the problem. We seem to have trouble accounting for all contributing factors that drive a particular change or tipping point until it lands in our laps.


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