The Great Game Never Ends

When then defense secretary, Colin Powell, warned George w. Bush that invading Iraq carried the Pottery Barn rule of "you break it, you own it" the neocons dismissed it. 

It's one thing to defeat a nation's military. It's another thing to destroy that nation's government. That's what the United States did in both Afghanistan and Iraq. That's the Pottery Barn rule.

When Germany collapsed at the end of WWII, the country was divided and arranged into four zones - one Soviet-controlled, one American, one British, one French.  Order was restored fairly quickly and government rebuilt. It took a few years but before long West Germany and the DDR emerged.

I remember the testimony about Afghanistan to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee by a State Department staffer about that country's post-Taliban future.  This expert said that a viable, democratic government in that region had never been achieved without first eliminating warlordism and tribalism.

Afghanistan is a tribal quilt. Its tribes are led by warlords who maintain their own militias.  The Americans got Hamid Karzai installed as head of state but even he was a warlord. They pressured Karzai not to allow the murderous bunch of warlords who fought as the Northern Alliance to dominate the Afghan government. Karzai failed.  

It was at this point that it became obvious that, no matter how long the US and its ISAF allies occupied Afghanistan their effort would never amount to more than babysitting an unresolved civil war.  Eventually the West would tire of this costly futility. The Taliban knew it. They knew that we had all the watches but they had all the time. Winning was a matter of surviving until we packed up and left.

Biden understands the pointlessness of remaining in Afghanistan. For 20 years one four star general after another has taken a shot at winning. It's been a shut out. America was out of bright ideas.

Afghanistan will become an interesting entry in America's up-to-date counter-insurgency field manual, FM 3-24. Anyone who read that field manual would be in no doubt that the U.S. and ISAF were never in this to win. They were marking time until their political leaders finally said "uncle."

I wonder if American history books will some day have a chapter for their 20 Years War? It's pretty hard to put lipstick on that pig so maybe not. U.S. history books are about winners, not losers.

The Great Game continues. It's reported that both Russia and Iran are moving in to fill the vacuum of America's departure. The next episode of the game will likely be another attempt to stir up things inside Afghanistan and could bring the regional neighbours into conflict.

And so it goes.




Comments

  1. Northern PoVJuly 10, 2021 at 7:01 AM

    So I followed your link and was surprised it did not lead directly to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Game_(Hopkirk_book)

    I read that book almost thirty years ago and much detail is forgotten.

    Remembering the theme, I have a small quibble: In the context of the Great Game, it is Russia that will fill the vacuum left by America. Iran is a very 'local player' and one of the (former?) pawns in the game.

    Oh and on an ironic note, another disambiguation link at your target was that famous bestseller https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Great_Game

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    Replies
    1. The Disaffected LibJuly 10, 2021 at 9:33 AM

      I doubt Russia wants Round Two with the Muji, NPoV. The Brits tried twice and left. The Sovs tried and left. Now the Americans tried, 20 years worth, and they went di di mau. Perhaps the Russians (and/or the Chinese) have pipelines in their dreams. A nice line, based on the TAPI but diverting instead to China's Afghan border might ease China's fears of being cut off by sea.

      The last few days have seen the Taliban sweep through capturing rural regions, closing in on the major cities. The strategy of the government seems to be not to spread themselves too thin by campaigning in the countryside. Instead they want to concentrate their resources to defending the cities. The Normans did something like that with their magnificent castles in Wales only they also controlled England, bit of a bonus.

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