Afghanistan Comes Full Circle


We had neither the will nor the means to win. Even if we did, we had no plan to win.

Just what in hell were we doing in Afghanistan? What were the Americans doing? What was ISAF doing there?

In September it will be 20 years since that fateful morning when al Qaeda flew loaded jetliners into the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, setting in motion a chain of events that is now drawing to a close.

It was a NATO war. The Americans invoked article 5, the mutual defence provision of the NATO Charter. An attack on one is an attack on all. America's NATO allies answered the call. It didn't matter that the United States was not under attack when it triggered article 5 nor did it matter that it was never attacked by the nation of Afghanistan. We were in no mood for awkward details. We were off to Afghanistan to uproot the Taliban regime. We would kick ass and take names.

The Taliban headed for the hills, the tribal homelands of the Afghan/Pakistan border.  al Qaeda headed for the caves of Tora Bora.  The Americans let their target, Osama bin Laden, slip through their fingers. The Talibs, from the sanctuary of the Federally Administrated Tribal Lands readied to wage a guerilla war against the infidels in their homeland.

Year followed year, the Talibs coming out in the spring to begin the war season, retiring in the fall to winter in their villages with their families.  The routine was almost monotonous.

The battle was governed by a few immutable principles. One was that the Western forces enjoyed such an advantage in numbers, weaponry and material that we could not be defeated. Another was that the West had shown no appetite for permawar, war without end. The clock was running. To win, the Talibs needed only to survive, to remain on the field when the day came that we left just as western forces had so many times before. 

Without the will, the means and some plan to win, we were not in Afghanistan to wage war. We were there to babysit an unresolved civil war. When we left the tribes of Afghanistan would pick up where they left off with the Taliban authority locked into conflict with the Northern Alliance tribes.

And here we are.

An article in Deutsche Welle reports that the Afghans are preparing to resume their civil war.


It is becoming increasingly difficult for Afghan President Ashraf Ghani to hold on to power, despite Biden's assurance to him that the US will continue to back his government.

Ghani has few options in this situation. His government is now turning to warlords and influential tribal figures for support, to help Kabul put together anti-Taliban militias.

Afghan officials, including new Defense Minister Bismillah Mohammadi, are calling on the people to join the fight against the Taliban.

"People have taken matters into their own hands by picking up arms to support their security forces against the Taliban," Fawad Aman, the deputy spokesman for Afghanistan's Defense Ministry, told DW, adding that the local support has helped Afghan security forces push back the Taliban in many areas.

"This could prove effective in the short term, but these armed groups could become a problem for the country in the future," Assadullah Nadim, a Kabul-based security analyst, told DW.

Armed citizen groups, according to Nadim, could change allegiance once they realize that their interests are better served by supporting other stakeholders.

"Influential Afghans, warlords and local leaders are leading an anti-Taliban campaign," the expert said, adding that they could turn their back on the government anytime.

In 2001 there was a website dedicated to the warlords of Afghanistan, giving a brief bio on each, their tribal affiliation, and a recap of the atrocities known to have been committed. It emerged that almost every warlord had, at some point, been allied with and then fought against pretty much every other warlord. Alliances would shift any time and treachery abounded.

Pashtun, Baloch, Uzbek, Turkmen, Hazara, Tajik, Arab and several others, 14 in all.

"The Taliban are emerging victorious not just in their traditional areas in the south of Afghanistan, like Kandahar or Helmand, but also in northern districts such as Mazar-e-Sharif. The government forces seem to be on the back foot, while warlords are rearming to fight the Taliban," Ahmed Rashid, a Pakistani journalist and best-selling author of several books, including Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia, told DW in an interview.

"It's an extremely dangerous situation that can suck in the neighboring countries. If that happens, that will be the end of Afghanistan," he added.

Michael Kugelman, deputy director and senior associate for South Asia at the Washington-based Wilson Center, told DW that "Afghanistan is already embroiled in a civil war."


Comments

  1. LorneJuly 10, 2021 at 5:20 PM

    Surely it was western (i.e., the U.S.) hubris at work here. Who else but the Greatest Country on Earth would assume that the historical reality of the region could be altered through sheer American exceptionalism? Historical reality? Pshaw, that's for mere mortals.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Northern PoVJuly 11, 2021 at 8:01 AM

    About the only good thing Harper ever did was to end Canada's (Paul Martin's) idiodic involvement in this doomed adventure. (Perhaps he was reading Kipling?)

    Further proving it was an outlier action (and done only to remove a potential electoral hazard), warmonger-Harper yesterday joined Pompeo to cheer on the Iran hawks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Disaffected LibJuly 11, 2021 at 9:37 AM

      It was late 2005 when Canada went from security to the combat mission in Kandahar. Stephen Harper became prime minister in 2006. He was an ardent champion of the combat gig, broadly criticizing his Liberal predecessor for not properly equipping Canadian soldiers- the little Itlis jeeps, green uniforms, etc.

      Your facts are wobbly, NPoV. Harper didn't end Canada's involvement. He made it his own to and including stipulating what Canada was there to achieve. Harper said we were going to stay until the end and we were going to make sure the Taliban were gone for good. Under a Tory government, Canada would never cut and run. Don't you remember any of this?

      Harper went headlong into this. Hillier duped Martin with assurances he couldn't hope to meet but Harper didn't need any arm twisting. It was Martin's war for one year and Harper's war after that, from 2006-2011 and in a training capacity from 2011 to 2014.

      Delete
    2. Northern PoVJuly 11, 2021 at 3:49 PM

      Sure Harper tried his hand at war-war, expanding what Martin started. But as you point out, he ended the combat mission in 2011 and complete withdrawal in 2014.

      Good thing, cause Freeland & Jr would have likely kept the 'training mission' going.

      Delete

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