A Bit of a Shocker. Has the Liberal Lead Faded?

 

Angus Reid finds that the Liberal lead over the O'Toole Conservatives isn't what it was even just two weeks ago.

The Trudeau Liberals were comfortably ahead - so long as the Covid pandemic was foremost in voters' minds. The AR poll reveals the electorate has had a shift in focus.

In the earliest days of this horse-race, new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds that would-be voters put the parties most likely to end up forming government in a statistical tie – with the incumbent Liberals under leader Justin Trudeau a mere two points ahead of the Conservative Party led by Erin O’Toole (33% versus 31%). The NDP remains in third place at 20 per cent, with the Green Party (3%) and Bloc Quebecois (7%) in single digits nationally.

These numbers come as focus on the Trudeau government’s management of the COVID-19 pandemic falls to its lowest point since the crisis began.

Handling of the pandemic has been a relative strength for the Liberal government over the last year and a half. Now, just one-in-five (19%) identify it as a top issue, down from 45 per cent in March. Replacing this issue in the public consciousness are matters of climate change, economic recovery, the size of the deficit, and Indigenous issues, the latter of which has picked up notable traction in recent months.

And while issues may galvanize voters, they appear to be less inspired by the leaders in main contention. As the favourability of Trudeau and O’Toole decline, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-Francois Blanchet enjoy slight net positive favourability.

While the Liberal lead is small, it is concentrated in British Columbia and Ontario where it translates into more seats. Neither Trudeau nor O'Toole are particularly popular but O'Toole has suffered the greatest drop.

Comments

  1. rumleyfipsJuly 17, 2021 at 1:46 PM

    Internal polling will determine the dropping of the writ and that information will not be shared with us .

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Disaffected LibJuly 17, 2021 at 4:17 PM

      And your point is?

      Delete
    2. LorneJuly 17, 2021 at 5:10 PM

      It would be nice to think this would give the Liberals pause in going to the polls earlier, but I don't think it will. Their sense of entitlement is just too great.

      Delete
    3. The Disaffected LibJuly 17, 2021 at 8:31 PM

      As we linger on with this pandemic and fall deeper into the throes of the climate emergency, Canada needs a strong, competent national government. Instead we have the traditional choice of Liberal and Conservative, neither particularly fit for purpose. Maybe Justin will wait if he senses another minority in the offing. Who knows? Better yet, who cares?

      Delete
    4. Northern PoVJuly 18, 2021 at 8:14 AM

      One poll up, one poll down but keep your eyes on the ball!

      "Instead we have the traditional choice of Liberal and Conservative,"
      Did you know you sound like a 'broken record' from 2015? ;-)

      With O'fool & the Con follies and the Green Zionist implosion (and the Bloc looming in la belle province) we have a much more appetizing electoral scenario to explore.

      𝗨𝗻𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟭𝟱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟭𝟵, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗧𝗥𝗔𝗧𝗘𝗚𝗜𝗖 𝘃𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗱𝗼𝗲𝘀𝗻'𝘁 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝘃𝗼𝘁𝗲 𝗟𝗶𝗯.
      In 2021 lets vote NDP & aim for another minority parliament. Lib-led minority gov't are the best (63-68, 72-74, now) in terms of outcomes.

      And successive minorities might just lead to pro-rep.

      Delete
    5. The Disaffected LibJuly 18, 2021 at 8:37 AM

      "O'fool" really?

      Delete

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